Office of the Provost and Executive Vice President for Academics

Distinguished Lecture Series

Title: Why Do So Many Studies Find No Relationship Between Cancer and
What We Eat: A Statisticians Perspective

Raymond J. Carroll, Ph.D.
Distinguished Professor, Department of Statistics
Texas A&M University

March 2, 2004, 7:30 p.m.
Auditorium, Annenberg Presidential Conference Center
Texas A&M University

Abstract

Newspaper articles routinely report the results of epidemiological studies of the relationship between what we eat and disease outcomes such as heart disease and various forms of cancer. One of the most quoted studies is the Nurses Health Study, which follows the health outcomes of 100,000 nurses and asks them questions about their dietary intakes. While there are exceptions, for the most part one can find a relationship between heart disease and diet (e.g., less fat, more fruits, etc.). On the other hand, it is relatively rare that epidemiological studies of human populations find links between cancer and dietary intakes. Perhaps the most controversial of all is the question of the relationship between dietary fat intake and breast cancer. Countries with higher fat intakes tend to have higher rates of breast cancer, and yet no epidemiological study has shown such a link. The puzzle of course is to understand the discrepancy.

Obviously, the etiology of disease may explain why heart disease, with its intermediate endpoints such as serum cholesterol, has confirmed links to nutrition while the evidence is mixed with cancer. The lecture focuses on a basic question of study design: how do we measure what we eat? Try this out: How many days per year do you eat apples? Dr. Carroll will review the accumulating evidence that suggests that with complex, subtle disease, such as cancer, with no good intermediate endpoints such as serum cholesterol for heart disease finding links between disease and nutrient intakes will be the exception rather than the rule, simply because of the inadequate way that we measure diet.

About the Speaker

In the field of statistics, a researcher may produce 75 to 100 publications, if he or she is truly active. Dr. Carroll currently has more than 200 publicationswith no end in sight. This productivity has made him one of the most prolific statistical researchers in the world. He is also a highly sought after speaker with more than 200 invited presentations at universities and conferences all over the world. In addition, Dr. Carroll is one of the most honored statisticians of his generation. Among his awards and honors are fellowships to all the leading societies, the Committee of Presidents of Statistical Societies (COPSS) Presidents Award (given to the outstanding statistician in the world under the age of 40), the COPSS Fisher Lecture (given to recognize scholarship in statistical science and for highly significant impact on scientific investigation), the Distinguished Alumnus Award from Purdue University, and an Association of Former Students University-level Distinguished Achievement Award in Research.

Dr. Carroll is a leading researcher in numerous areas. His work on transformations led to a book described by one reviewer as a masterpiece. His work on robust estimation and inference produced ground-breaking results, and his work on heteroscedastic models, variance estimation, and nonlinear modeling has been similarly significant. Although he has contributed a great deal to the field of statistics, his most important contribution has been the impact that his research has had on scientists outside of the field of statistics. He is probably best known for his development of the field of nonlinear and semiparametric measurement error models. This work has been important in such diverse areas as geology, economics, chemometrics, cancer research, nutrition and epidemiology. What these and other fields have in common is the fact that the important predictors of an outcome of interest are often unmeasurable, or at least are measured with error. His seminal work has ensured the development of statistical tools to handle such problems, as well as to critically assess the cost of poorly measured data.

Dr. Carroll came to Texas A&M University in 1987. In addition to being on the faculty of the Department of Statistics, Dr. Carroll also serves on the intercollegiate faculties in nutrition and toxicology. He has previously served on the faculties of the University of North Carolina and the University of Pennsylvania, and has been a visiting professor at the University of Heidelberg, Germany, the University of Wisconsin, and the Australian National University. He also served as a visiting scientist at the National Institutes of Health. He holds a bachelors degree from The University of Texas at Austin and a doctorate from Purdue University.