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0601
A Simple Test of Adverse Events and Strategic Timing Theories of Consumer Bankruptcy
Li Gan
Private Enterprise Research Center
Department of Economics
Texas A&M University

Tarun Sabarwal
Department of Economics
Washington University in St. Louis
A test of adverse events and strategic timing theories can be conducted by determining whether some relevant financial decision variables, such as financial benefit from filing for bankruptcy, or debt discharged in bankruptcy are endogenous with the bankruptcy decision or not. For the strategic timing theory such decisions are endogenous, while for the adverse events theory they are not. Hausman tests for endogeneity show that financial benefit, unsecured debt, and non-exempt assets are exogenous with the bankruptcy decision, consistent with the adverse events theory.
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0602
Should We Teach an Old Economy Dog New Economy Tricks? The Role of a Postal Service in the New Economy
Michael D. Bradley
Department of Economics
George Washington University

Dennis W. Jansen
Private Enterprise Research Center
Department of Economics
Texas A&M University
Published in The New Economy and Beyond: Past, Present, and Future, 2006
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0603
Concentration in the Major Business Journals: Evidence and Consequences for Accounting, Finance, Management, and Marketing
Edward P. Swanson
Department of Accounting
Texas A&M University

Christopher J. Wolfe
Department of Accounting
Texas A&M University

Asghar Zardkoohi
Private Enterprise Research Center
Department of Management
Texas A&M University
We first investigate how articles are distributed among universities in a set of 14 highly ranked academic business journals from accounting, finance, management, and marketing over the period 1990-2002. We find that concentration ratios are highest in accounting and finance. Much of the higher concentration occurs in privately sponsored journals, where faculty at private (public) schools publish a relatively high (low) portion of the articles.
Next, we investigate how articles are distributed among individuals. We find that substantially fewer accounting faculty publish in a major journal, but the average number of articles by faculty who publish at least once exceeds that of finance, management or marketing. Further, we discover that successful accounting publishers are more likely to be affiliated with highly ranked research universities and private universities than are their business school colleagues. Finally, we examine if economic consequences arise from this concentration and find evidence of reduced promotion and merit pay for accounting full professors.
Published in Contemporary Accounting Research, 2007
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0604
Testing The Significance Of Categorical Predictor Variables In Nonparametric Regression Models
Jeff Racine
Department of Economics
McMaster University

Jeffrey Hart
Department of Statistics
Texas A&M University

Qi Li
Private Enterprise Research Center
Department of Economics
Texas A&M University

In this paper we propose a test for the significance of categorical predictors in nonparametric regression models. The test is fully data-driven and employs cross-validated smoothing parameter selection while the null distribution of the test is obtained via bootstrapping. The proposed approach allows applied researchers to test hypotheses concerning categorical variables in a fully nonparametric and robust framework, thereby deflecting potential criticism that a particular finding is driven by an arbitrary parametric specification. Simulations reveal that the test performs well, having significantly better power than a conventional frequency-based nonparametric test. The test is applied to determine whether OECD and non-OECD countries follow the same growth rate model or not. Our test suggests that OECD and non-OECD countries follow different growth rate models, while the tests based on a popular parametric specification and the conventional frequency-based nonparametric estimation method fail to detect any significant difference.

Published in Econometric Reviews, 2006
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0605
A Dual Measure of Correlation between the Solow Residual and Output Growth
Li Gan
Private Enterprise Research Center
Department of Economics
Texas A&M University

Dandan Liu
Department of Economics
Bowling Green State University

Qi Li
Private Enterprise Research Center
Department of Economics
Texas A&M University
In this paper, we measure U.S. technology shocks by implementing a dual approach, which is based on more reliable price data instead of aggregate quantity data. By doing so, we find the relative volatility of technology shocks and the correlation between output fluctuation and technology shocks to be much smaller than those revealed in most real business-cycle (RBC) studies. Our results support the findings of Burnside, Eichenbaum and Rebelo (1996), who showed that the correlation between technology shocks and output is exaggerated in the RBC literature. This suggests that one should examine other sources of fluctuations for a better understanding of the business cycle phenomena.
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0606
A Formal Theory of Reference Group for Well-being Studies: A Solution to the Happiness-Income Puzzle
Guoqiang Tian
Private Enterprise Research Center
Department of Economics
Texas A&M University

Liyan Yang
Department of Economics
Cornell University
This paper studies the happiness-income paradox: average happiness levels do not increase as countries grow wealthier. We do so by giving a formal and rigorous economic theory of reference group/aspiriation for happiness studies from the perspective of social happiness maximization. We show that, up to a critical income level, which is positively related to non-material status, increasing income enhances happiness. Once the critical income level is achieved, increasing income cannot increase social happiness and in fact, somewhat surprising, social happiness actually decreases, resulting in Pareto inefficient outcomes. A policy implication of our model is that government should increase public expenses on promoting non-material wants such as mental status, family life, health, basic human rights, etc. when national income becomes large.
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0607
Theory of Negative Consumption Externalities with Applications to Economics of Happiness
Guoqiang Tian
Private Enterprise Research Center
Department of Economics
Texas A&M University

Liyan Yang
Department of Economics
Cornell University
This paper investigates the problem of achieving Pareto efficient allocations in the presence of negative consumption externalities. In contrast to the conventional wisdom, we show that, even if consumers' preferences are monotonically increasing in their own consumption, one may have to destroy resources to achieve Pareto efficient allocations when there are negative consumption externalities. As such, there is no way to allocate resources efficiently without destroying resources, even under complete information and zero transaction costs. We provide characterization results on the destruction of resources for pure exchange economies with negative consumption externalities, and we obtain similar results for more general production economies with consumption and production externalities. As an application of our results, we provide a formal foundation for reference group theory which has been used to study economics of happiness. Our results provide an explanation to Easterlin's paradox: average happiness levels do not increase as countries grow wealthier.
Forthcoming in Economic Theory, 2008
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0608
Estimating Interdependence between Health and Education in a Dynamic Model
Li Gan
Private Enterprise Research Center
Department of Economics
Texas A&M University

Guan Gong
School of Economics
Shanghai University of Finance and Economics
This paper investigates to what extent and through which channels that health and educational attainment are interdependent. A dynamic model of schooling, work, health expenditure, and savings is developed. The structural framework explicitly models two existing hypotheses on the correlation between health and education. The estimation results strongly support the interdependence between health and education. In particular, the estimated model indicates that an individual's education, health expenditure, and previous health status all affect his health status. Moreover, the individual's health status affects his mortality rate, wage, home production, and academic success. On average, having been sick before age 21 decreases the individual's education by 1.4 years. Policy experiments indicate that a health expenditure subsidy would have a larger impact on educational attainment than a tuition subsidy.
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0609
Efficiency and Performance in Texas Public Schools
Timothy J. Gronberg
Private Enterprise Research Center
Department of Economics
Texas A&M University

Dennis W. Jansen
Private Enterprise Research Center
Department of Economics
Texas A&M University

George S. Naufal
Department of Economics
Texas A&M University
Do high ratings based upon traditional performance measures go hand in hand with efficiency? This paper addresses this question using stochastic production frontier methods. We utilize a six-year panel of test score, school input, and school student characteristics data for a sample of 3,000 campuses in Texas. We generate estimates of school-specific efficiency based upon the estimates of the one-sided school specific error term in a stochastic production frontier model. School rankings on the basis of estimated efficiency are not well correlated with school rankings on the basis of traditional measures of school performance.
Published in Improving School Accountability: Checkups or Choice, volume 14 in the Advances in Applied Microeconomics series, 2006
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0610
A Note on Cointegration of Health Expenditure and Income
Zijun Wang
Private Enterprise Research Center
Texas A&M University

Andrew J. Rettenmaier
Private Enterprise Research Center
Texas A&M University
Utilizing a panel data set of 50 U.S. states, this note investigates nonstationarity and cointegration of health care expenditures and gross state products (GSP). Both the individual state-based method and the recent panel data method are applied. Allowing for structural breaks in the test, we find that health care expenditures and GSP are both nonstationary. The evidence also suggests that the two series form a cointegrating relationship. The income elasticities of health spending vary over states and became smaller in the 1990s.
Published in Health Economics, 2007
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0611
Does Seeing Deeper into a Game Increase One's Chances of Winning?
Carl Nicholas McKinney, Jr.
Department of Economics and Business Administration
Rhodes College

John Van Huyck, Rex Grey Professor
Private Enterprise Research Center
Department of Economics
Texas A&M University
The substantively rational value of the games studied in this paper does not help predict subject performance in the experiment at all. An accurate model must account for the cognitive ability of the people playing the game. This paper investigates whether the variation in measured rationality bounds is correlated with the probability of winning when playing against another person in games that exceed both players' estimated rationality bound. Does seeing deeper into a game matter when neither player can see to the end of the game? Subjects with higher measured bounds win 63 percent of the time and the larger the difference the more frequently they win.
Published in Experimental Economics, 2006
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0612
Longevity Bias in Cost-Effectiveness Analysis
Liqun Liu
Private Enterprise Research Center
Texas A&M University

Andrew J. Rettenmaier
Private Enterprise Research Center
Texas A&M University

Thomas R. Saving
Private Enterprise Research Center
Texas A&M University

We use a simple lifetime utility maximization model to study the problem of medical resource allocation. This model leads to a welfare specification with a QALY (quality-adjusted life-year) component that captures an individual's preferences over both life expectancy and health status. The goal of medical cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) is characterized as maximizing the QALY measure for a given total medical expenditure. We show that the CEA with such a goal has a longevity bias: the CEA-based division of a given total medical expenditure between extending life and improving health gives the former a larger share than is called for by welfare maximization.

Published in Health Economics, 2008
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0613
Spillover of Cause-Specific Longevity Interventions: An Independent Mortality Risk Model
Liqun Liu
Private Enterprise Research Center
Texas A&M University
As an alternative to the competing mortality risk model, this paper presents an "independent mortality risk model" in which the complementality among various longevity investments is less obvious. In studying spillover effects of cause-specific longevity interventions, it distinguishes between two types of such interventions: cause-specific price reductions and cause-specific direct provisions. It finds that a cause-specific direct provision always has a positive spillover effect on longevity investments for other causes, but a cause-specific price reduction may have a negative spillover effect due to a substitution effect.
Published in The European Journal of Health Economics, 2008
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0614
Stock Market Risk and Dollarization in Ecuador
Dennis W. Jansen
Private Enterprise Research Center
Department of Economics
Texas A&M University

Maria Caridad Ortiz
Department of Economics
Texas A&M University
We study the impact of dollarization and related economic liberalization of Ecuador in January 2000 on the distribution of stock returns in Ecuador. While the mean dollar return of investing in Ecuadorian stocks changed from large and negative to large and positive, traditional measures of volatility such as the standard deviation of returns actually increased after dollarization. However, focusing on the tails of the distribution and extreme events, we find that the tail thickness of the distribution of Ecuador stock returns increased for positive returns but decreased for negative returns. Thus, while the standard deviation may have increased, it is because of a greater probability of large positive returns. The probability of large negative returns decreased, as expected, post dollarization. Value at Risk estimates illustrates this phenomenon.
Published in Applied Financial Economics Letters, 2007
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0615
Relationship Banking and Escalation of Commitment: An Empirical Examination
Donald Fraser
Department of Finance
Texas A&M University

Eugene Kang
Nanyang Business School
Singapore

Ramona L. Paetzold
Department of Management
Texas A&M University

Asghar Zardkoohi
Private Enterprise Research Center
Department of Management
Texas A&M University
Escalation of commitment, or the decision to assign additional resources to a failing course of action, has been demonstrated to be a problem for banks generally. This phenomenon has been attributed to self-justification strategies by loan officers. We posit that escalation of commitment may also be a problem for a certain subset of banks because of the type of strategy they use in acquiring and maintaining loan customers. This strategy is commonly referred to as relationship banking. When smaller banks attempt to build strong relationships with their customers, they may inadvertently also increase their risk of engaging in escalation of commitment to bad loans. An empirical test of this hypothesis reveals that, for banks engaged in relationship banking, developing stronger relationships with loan customers is indeed associated with increased levels of escalation of commitment.
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0616
Should Oil Prices Receive So Much Attention? An Evaluation of the Predictive Power of Oil Prices for the US Economy
Lance J. Bachmeier
Department of Economics
Kansas State University

Qi Li
Private Enterprise Research Center
Department of Economics
Texas A&M University

Dandan Liu
Department of Economics
Bowling Green State University
This paper evaluates the potential gains from using oil prices to forecast a variety of measures of inflation, economic activity, and monetary policy-related variables. With a few exceptions, oil prices do not have any predictive content for these variables. This finding is robust to the use of rolling forecast windows, the use of industry-level data, changes in the forecast horizon, and allowing for nonlinearities.
Forthcoming in Economic Inquiry, 2008
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0617
The Cost to Firms of Cooking the Books
Jonathan M. Karpoff
Department of Finance
University of Washington

D. Scott Lee
Private Enterprise Research Center
Department of Finance
Texas A&M University

Gerald S. Martin
Department of Finance
Texas A&M University
We examine the penalties imposed on all 585 firms that were targeted by SEC enforcement actions for financial misrepresentation from 1978 - 2002, which we track through November 15, 2005. The penalties imposed on firms through the legal system appear to be small, as the unconditional mean total of all legal penalties is only $23.5 million per firm. The penalties imposed by the market, in contrast, are huge. Our point estimate of the reputational penalty, which we define as the expected loss in the present value of future cash flows due to lower sales and higher contracting costs, is over 7.5 times the sum of all penalties imposed through the legal and regulatory system. For each dollar that a firm misleadingly inflates its market value, on average, it loses this dollar when its misconduct is revealed, plus an additional $3.08. Of this additional loss, $0.36 is due to expected legal penalties and $2.71 is due to lost reputation. In firms that survive the enforcement process, lost reputation is even greater at $3.83. In the cross-section, the reputational penalty is positively related to measures of the firm's reliance on implicit contracts and repeat contracting. This evidence belies a widespread belief that financial misrepresentation is disciplined lightly. To the contrary, reputation losses impose substantial penalties for cooking the books.
Forthcoming in Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 2008
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0618
The Legal Penalties for Financial Misrepresentation
Jonathan M. Karpoff
Department of Finance
University of Washington

D. Scott Lee
Private Enterprise Research Center
Department of Finance
Texas A&M University

Gerald S. Martin
Department of Finance
Texas A&M University
This paper provides the first integrated analysis of the complex mix of private and regulatory penalties for financial misrepresentation. We examine the sizes, types, and determinants of legal penalties imposed for all 697 enforcement actions initiated by the Securities and Exchange Commission for financial misrepresentation from 1978 through 2004. These penalties include private class action awards, monetary penalties imposed by the SEC and Department of Justice, and such non-monetary sanctions as censures, trading suspensions, and jail time. Contrary to many criticisms of private lawsuits and regulatory actions, we find that legal penalties are highly systematic, and in particular, are positively related to the size and severity of the harm from the misconduct. The data also indicate some support for deep pockets effects, as both private and regulatory monetary penalties are related to defendants' abilities to pay. A recent increase in regulatory penalties has coincided with a decrease in private monetary penalties, suggesting that regulatory penalties can crowd out the use of private penalties.
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0619
The Potential for Expropriation through Joint Ventures
Spencer A. Case
McCoy College of Business Administration
Texas State University

D. Scott Lee
Private Enterprise Research Center
Mays Business School
Texas A&M University

John D. Martin
Hankamer School of Business
Baylor University
We examine the potential expropriation of a firm's intellectual capital that results from joint venture agreements when a firm's joint venture partner becomes the target of an acquisition attempt. We find that: (1) non-targeted joint venture partners often suffer losses in value upon the announcement of the acquisition; (2) the magnitude of the loss increases with the R&D intensity of the non-targeted joint venture partner; and (3) average bidder returns are less negative for acquirers if the affected joint venture partners report R&D spending and are in the same line of business as the acquirer. Our estimate of the average loss is $843 million per firm, roughly 3% of the non-targeted firm's pre-announcement equity value. Our evidence suggests a previously unrecognized merger motive in that joint ventures expose a firm's intellectual capital to the risk of expropriation.
Published in Review of Financial Economics, 2007
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0620
Evidence on Asymmetric Gasoline Price Responses from Error Correction Models with GARCH Errors
Jingping Gu
Department of Economics
Texas A&M University

Dennis W. Jansen
Private Enterprise Research Center
Department of Economics
Texas A&M University
This paper examines the possible asymmetric response of gasoline prices to crude oil price changes using an error correction model with exponential GARCH errors. Recent papers have looked at this issue, including Borenstein, Cameron and Gilbert (1997), who find asymmetry in the response of retail gasoline prices to crude oil price changes, and Bachmeier and Griffin (2003), who find no evidence of asymmetry in the response of wholesale gasoline prices to crude oil price changes. These papers both estimate a form of error correction model, but neither accounts for autoregressive heteroskedasticity in estimation and testing for asymmetry. We find that time-varying volatility of gasoline price disturbances is an important feature of the data, and when we allow for exponential GARCH errors we find evidence of asymmetric adjustment to crude oil price changes in both daily wholesale gasoline prices and weekly retail gasoline prices.
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0621
Outliers and Nonlinearity in Modeling Industrial Production for G-7 Countries
Dennis W. Jansen
Private Enterprise Research Center
Department of Economics
Texas A&M University

Wankeun Oh
Department of Economics
Hankuk University of Foreign Studies
We investigate the relationship between outliers and nonlinearity when modeling industrial production among the G-7 countries. It is well known that industrial production appears to exhibit nonlinearity. It may be less well known that the industrial production series contain many outliers, at least as judged by the standard outlier detection methods. We find that it is important to consider both outliers and nonlinearity, but of the two it seems most important to consider outliers. For all seven countries we find significant and important outliers, but for only some are nonlinearities important, especially after considering outliers.
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